In the US, the monetary & fiscal stimulus spigots are turning off as the Fed threatens to start tapering in November and Congress devolves into gridlock over both the next stimulus package as well as the debt ceiling.
The US currently spends 111% of its tax receipts on the true cost of servicing its debt & the Fed is now chained to printing up the difference. This is a no-win situation.
Outside the US, longstanding stable political regimes like Angela Merkel’s party in Germany are voted out of control. And Asia, particularly China, is experiencing a pronounced economic slowdown, exacerbated by failures like the Evergrande crisis.
Add to that rising energy costs, natural gas & petrol shortages, and electrical power rationing across the globe, and the road ahead looks downright scary.
How will this turbulence resolve? And how are markets likely to react?
To shoulder the challenge of making sense of this all, I’m thrilled to welcome Luke Gromen back onto the program.
Luke Gromen is founder of the highly-respect macro/thematic research firm Forest for the Trees.